Mark Hulbert: ‘Tech wreck’ is not what will finish this longhorn market

Whatever else we can contend about new tech zone debility — and there is no necessity of explanation on a theme — we doubt it’s signaling an approaching bear market.

That should yield some condolence to shaken bulls for whom memories of a ripping of a internet burble are still uninformed in their minds. Up until a final integrate of days, of course, this zone had been heading a marketplace higher, scarcely doubling a 12-month lapse of a SP 500

SPX, -0.37%


But, then, on Sep. 5 a zone suffered a misfortune day in over a month. And it was one of misfortune behaving sectors on Sep. 6 as well, environment adult a tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite to have a misfortune week given Mar. 23.

In fact, as we can see from a concomitant chart, a tech zone has been slipping in relations strength for 3 months now.

To be sure, these developments support a rising account that a longhorn marketplace comes to an finish when a prior highest-flyers start to design and afterwards fall.

But my research of past longhorn marketplace tops shows that this account is false. The worst-performing sectors in a final 3 months of past longhorn markets are roughly never a ones that were during a tip performers in those longhorn markets.

In fact, that’s never been a box given a mid-1970s. Furthermore, during no time in a past 5 decades was a top-performing zone in a given longhorn marketplace a worst-performing zone in a initial 3 months of a successive bear market.

I bottom these conclusions on information from marketplace researcher Ned Davis Research. The information enclosed SP 500 zone rankings in any longhorn marketplace given 1974, along with zone rankings for a final 3 months of any of those longhorn markets, as good as during a initial 3 months of successive bear markets.

Take a longhorn marketplace from Oct. 9, 2002, yet Oct. 9, 2007. That longhorn marketplace ended, of course, only as a Great Financial Crisis was beginning. The tip behaving SP 500 zone in that five-year longhorn market, according to Ned Davis’ data, was Energy, with a 27.9% annualized return. If a “higher they rise, a harder they fall” account were true, afterwards we would design that this zone would have been abnormally diseased in a final few months of that longhorn marketplace or in a initial of a successive bear market.

But conjunction was a case. Energy indeed was a tip performer for a final 3 months of that longhorn market, in second place in fact among a 10 SP 500 sectors. It also was a clever relations performer in a initial 3 months of a successive bear market, also in second place.

Nor was this knowledge in 2007 a fluke. The same altogether settlement was a box in each other longhorn marketplace given 1974.

To be sure, there are copiousness of things about this marketplace that should worry investors. Tech-sector debility isn’t one of them.

For some-more information, including descriptions of a Hulbert Sentiment Indices, go to The Hulbert Financial Digest or email Create an email warning for Mark Hulbert’s MarketWatch columns here (requires sign-in).



Mark Hulbert has been tracking a recommendation of some-more than 160 financial newsletters given 1980.

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